Effects of Reduced Nuclear Capacity in Europe

Following the Fukushima accident in 2011, some EU member states decided to phase out nuclear power. We explore the impact of an EU-wide nuclear phase out provided the proposal of the EU Commission to reduce GHG emissions by 40 percent in 2030 relative to 1990 is implemented. Using a numerical simulation model of the European energy industry (LIBEMOD), we find that a complete nuclear phase out in Europe by 2030 has a moderate impact on total production of electricity and only a tiny impact on total consumption of energy. Lower nuclear production is to a large extent replaced by more renewable electricity production, in particular wind power and bio power.