Unemployment Hysteresis and the Natural Rate of Vacancies

Authors:

Røed, Knut

Year:

2002

Reference:

Vol. 27, p. 686-704Nummer i serie: 27

Summary

On the basis of macro data from 10 OECD countries, I find that the job vacancy rate outperforms the unemployment rate as a reliable measure of domestic inflationary pressure. Moreover, while the rate of unemployment affects inflation primarily through its difference, the vacancy rate operates through a level effect as well. In most countries, a unique equilibrium rate of vacancies seems to coexist with a drifting equilibrium rate of unemployment. I show that this result is consistent with existing theories of unemployment hysteresis that focus on depreciation of human capital and search activity during unemployment spells.

JEL:

E24, J63, J64

Keywords:

Unemployment. Vacancies, Persistence, Hysteresis

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