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Optimal Disease Eradication

Link to article:

[DOI]

Authors:

Barrett, Scott and Michael Hoel

Year:

2007

Reference:

Environment and Development Economics

12, 627-652

Summary

Using a dynamic model of the control of an infectious disease, we derive the conditions under which eradication will be optimal. When eradication is feasible, the optimal program requires either a low vaccination rate or eradication. A high vaccination rate is never optimal. Under special conditions, the results are especially stark: the optimal policy is either not to vaccinate at all or to eradicate. Our analysis yields a cost-benefit rule for eradication, which we apply to the current initiative to eradicate polio.

JEL:

D61, H41, I18.

Keywords:

eradication of infectious diseases, vaccination, control theory, cost-benefit analysis, poliomyelitis.

Project:

Oppdragsgiver: Norges forskningsråd
Oppdragsgivers prosjektnr.:
Frisch prosjekt: 4101 - Economics of health

Contact:

michael.hoel@econ.uio.no

Financing:

The Research Council of Norway