Frisch seminar: Sturla Kvamsdal

Abstract: The Barents Sea and Arctic regions in general are facing significant impacts from climate change. A major concern is increasing temperatures. I explore four different scenarios of temperature impacts on the Barents Sea Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua), its fishery, and the level of natural capital – wealth – that the fish stock represents. My framework incorporates interaction with the main prey, capelin, under uncertainty in the population dynamics equations and under two relevant management regimes. One regime is based on maximum sustainable yield (MSY) and one is based on ecosystem-based management (EBM). Because of uncertainty over how warming will impact the Barents Sea cod, the investigated scenarios include both positive and negative impacts on parameters in the population dynamics. Wealth under MSY is robust to growth rate impacts, but with impacts on the carrying capacity wealth will change significantly. The EBM regime would increase wealth in all scenarios. Wealth estimates supports appropriate accounting prices for the natural capital stocks – prices that reflect modelled ecosystem and temperature dynamics.